Overview
Metrics below include placeholders pending final validation. Replace before external procurement or press usage.
Outbreak Anomaly Detector Pilot
Purpose: Early detection of anomalous respiratory syndrome clusters from syndromic surveillance feeds.
Performance & Fairness
| Metric | Overall | High-SVI | Low-SVI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sensitivity | 0.84 | 0.81 | 0.85 |
| PPV | 0.72 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| Median Lead-Time (days) | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| False Alerts / wk | 0.9 | — | |
Placeholder – update with validated metrics + confidence intervals.
Limitations
- Not tuned for ultra-rare syndromes.
- Holiday demand shifts can inflate false positives.
- Lead-time depends on upstream data latency.
Governance
Quarterly fairness audit; drift alert if sensitivity drops >5% vs prior quarter.
Version: 1.2 • Ref 8
Overdose Risk Stratifier Pilot
Purpose: Prioritize outreach for opioid overdose prevention (naloxone distribution, treatment engagement).
Performance
| Metric | Overall |
|---|---|
| AUROC | 0.79 |
| Top 5% risk captures overdose % | 41% |
| Brier | 0.13 |
Illustrative only.
Fairness
Monitoring subgroup false negative parity; alert if gap >7 p.p. sustained over two retrains.
Limitations
- Dependent on PDMP completeness.
- Limited signal for first-time users.
- Population-level prioritization; not clinical diagnosis.
Version: 0.9 • Ref 5
Vaccination Coverage Optimizer Early
Purpose: Recommend allocation of mobile clinics & outreach to maximize incremental coverage.
Simulation Outputs
| Scenario | Gain vs Baseline |
|---|---|
| Rural cluster | +7.2% |
| Urban underserved | +5.1% |
| Aggregate (5 sites) | +6.0% |
Simulation – awaiting field validation.
Limitations
- Assumes stable outreach capacity.
- No real-time misinformation shock modeling yet.
- Equity weighting misconfiguration may reduce impact.
Version: 0.3 • Ref 6
Disclaimer
Metrics are illustrative placeholders until validated. Models are not for individual clinical decision-making.